It’s that time of year. Playoff hockey is arriving, and the Toronto Maple Leafs are atop the Atlantic division. This year, they got themselves into the Battle of Ontario; a round one matchup with the Ottawa Senators.

Ottawa hasn’t made the playoffs since 2017, where they lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the conference finals. This Senators team is a true wild card: they have no idea what to expect and neither do hockey fans. We haven’t seen Brady Tkachuk in the playoffs yet, and while he might be banged up, we know that the Tkachuk’s will fight through whatever pain they’re enduring for a postseason run.

Toronto on the other hand, completed what could be their best season in the last decade. While the individual point totals or goal numbers for many of the Leafs wouldn’t look as bright as they usually do, this Maple Leafs team is playing a much better all around game under new head coach Craig Berube. John Tavares completed a strong bounce back year, and Matthew Knies took yet another step in the development of his young career.

The last time the Maple Leafs and the Senators met in the playoffs was in 2004. Fast forward 21 years later, and hardships for both teams, they meet again.

Ottawa finished as the first wild card team in the conference this season. Linus Ullmark guided his team to a 45-30-7 record, with Ullmark finishing with a 25-14-3 record, with a .910SV% and a 2.72GAA. Considering the Senators and Ullmark had a very slow start to the season, these numbers are quite good. Ottawa’s top point scorer was Tim Stutzle with 79 points, and their leading goal scorer was captain Brady Tkachuk with 29 goals in his own shortened season.

Toronto, however, as mentioned finished first in the division, with a 52-26-4 record, with Anthony Stolarz being their top goaltender, competing to a 21-8-3 record, with a .926SV% and a 2.14GAA. Joseph Woll took over the starting job in the middle of the season due to an injury to Anthony Stolarz, and had stats that can compete with Linus Ullmark. Mitch Marner was the Leafs’ top point scorer, notching a career high 102 points. William Nylander was the team’s leading goal scorer with his own career high 45 goals.

This season, Ottawa has had Toronto’s number. In all three of their matchups this season, Ottawa has won all three games, outscoring Toronto 9-3. Toronto needs to right the wrongs of this season’s matchups if they want to make a deep run in this postseason.

“It’s about us. I get Ottawa’s a real good team, and it’s going to be a battle, and they do what they do, and we’ll look at that stuff, but it really boils down to our team and the commitment and the battle we’ll need.” – Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube

To put it lightly, Toronto needs to make an example out of Ottawa this series. They need to have a deep postseason run soon so they can not only prove to the rest of the NHL, but to themselves as well, that they are not just a regular season team. Toronto’s “Core 4” needs to be the game changers in this series. Auston Matthews has to be the scoring threat he has been for the last 3 seasons. Mitch Marner needs to continue the level of play he has in the regular season, and William Nylander needs to find a next level of aggression and be that difference maker against Ottawa’s second line. John Tavares has historically been good in the postseason, but if the Leafs can continue and follow this style of play with how John Tavares has been performing this season, there is no reason for the Leafs to lose this series. Anthony Stolarz is in his prime, the Leafs have strong and solid defenders, and they have a much deeper forward group this season than any in the past. The Toronto Maple Leafs need to play a strong and smart style of hockey to defeat this feisty Senators group, or they might see Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and maybe even Matthew Knies find new teams next season.

Official Prediction: Maple Leafs in Six Games