Wisconsin Travels to East Lansing, Double Bye at Stake & NCAA Seeding At Stake

The league’s best scoring offense will square off against the league’s best defensive unit Sunday at the Breslin Center.

Fresh off a stunning buzzer-beater win, Michigan State continues to control their own destiny towards a regular season title and potentially, a number 1 NCAA Tournament seeding, but let’s focus on the matchup. There has been enough “fat and sassy” moments that have humbled the Spartans and there will be no overlooking any opponent during their critical 4-game finale.

Wisconsin comes to town sporting a 5-4 road record and a recent loss to Oregon has them on the cut line for a double bye in the Big Ten conference tournament. Owning a loss to Maryland means the Badgers have some work left and tall task winning at the Breslin Center. They are led by John Tonje at 19.5 ppg (48.0% FG, 91.3% FTs) and 4.9 rpg with John Blackwell averaging 15.2 points (46.9% FG, 79.8 FT %) 5.0 rpg and 2.2 apg. Nolan Winter (56.9% FG & 75.0% FT, 5.7 rpg)), Max Klesmit (2.7 apg, 84.5% FT) and Steven Crowl (54.8% FG, 83.9% FT, 54.2% 3-pt) all average 9+ ppg. 6 players, counting Kamari McGee, average 20+ mpg with only 3 bench players playing between 10 and 17 mpg of which, the production severely drops off. Collectively, they cash in at the FT better than MSU as well as a considerably better 3-point percentage at 36.2% and a minor rebounding margin under 1.

Michigan State record by uniform this season:

White: 6-2
White w/ gruff shorts: 3-0
Green: 5-3
Black: 5-0
2000 throwback: 4-0 pic.twitter.com/KsjoowrKHZ

— MSU Uniforms (@MSU_Uniforms) February 27, 2025

The Spartans own a better 2-pt defensive %, 3.5 rebounds more, almost 3 more assists per game with a whopping 10% in offensive rebounding (+3.1 OffReb/game) along with double the blocks average. The keys will come down to limiting turnovers, continuing to control the glass and getting to the FT line (80.0%-7th) and converting (38th in attempts/game and 9th in FTM/game) while continuing to win second halves with a +4.8 scoring difference from the first half, limiting their opponents to only +3.7 after struggling in during the 13-game win streak in allowing 35-40 points in several. However, that has been the opposite since California.

The Michigan State Basketball Hangover is REAL

MSU’s opponents this season have a combined W/L record of 10-13 in games immediately following a loss to Michigan State

Combined scoring margin of -130 points 😳 pic.twitter.com/aBRJWTuaOM

— dunc 🌎 (@SpartyWRLD) March 1, 2025

Key Matchups:

Jase Richardson vs. John Tonje: Richardson’s scoring ability will be crucial for Michigan State, while Tonje’s all-around game will be vital for Wisconsin. Do the Badgers have the ability to slow Jase down? Will Aikns, Booker and Frankie step up from the outside to help out?
Jaxon Kohler vs. Steven Crowl: The battle of the big men will be intense, with both players being key rebounders and defenders for their respective teams. Jaxon has been a tremendous paint defender and has found confidence from the outside recently, adding another threat from deep, but it’s his post play and ability to eat up rebounds has made him a pivotal asset.
Jeremy Fears Jr. vs. John Blackwell: The point guard matchup will be interesting, with Fears Jr.’s playmaking abilities going up against Blackwell’s defensive prowess. Will Wisconsin continue the trend of leaving Fears open? Stats would strongly suggest, yes.

If MSU can get Wisconsin into some early fouls, this could push the Badgers into mistakes and take chances and allow MSU to control the tempo. Maryland had been an efficient offense but defensive tends to win out. It will be MSU’s depth and defense against the scoring prowess of Wisconsin. The Breslin Center will be rocking, it’s now March and we ALL know what that means- it’s Coach Izzo season. Buckle up!

Fun fact: Tom Izzo teams that were unranked to start the season have finished with a combined 151-82 record (.648 win %) averaging 21.6 wins in those 7 seasons all-time. After starting the current NCAA tournament streak, Izzo teams also took home (of those 5 seasons) 2 regular season championships and 1 conference tournament title. Not bad for “down” years. Izzo also owns a 41-23 record all-time vs. Wisconsin which is the most wins vs any Big Ten school, including a staggering 22-6 at the friendly confines of East Lansing. Oh and he also is 35-21 vs Michigan and 29-13 vs Iowa, the final two contests.

Record/Rankings & More:

23-5 (14-3, 1st-Big Ten) Rankings: #8 AP / #8 Coaches Poll
Updated KenPom- Off: 27th / Def: 6th. Adjusted Tempo: 179th. SOS Net Rtg: 36th +11.94

Updated Bart Torvik- ADJOE: 32nd/ADJDE: 15th / EFF.FGD%: 46.0 (16th) / ORBD %: 36.6 (16th) & DRBD %: 25.3 (16th)

Other Metrics: KPI (8th), ESPN SoR (8th), ESPN BPI (12th), T-Rank: 17th — #8 in FT % (79.9%), #9 in FTM/game (18.0)/ #33 in FTA/game (22.5)

FULL KenPom Stats: https://kenpom.com/index.php

FULL Bart Torvik Stats: https://barttorvik.com/#

FULL T-Rank Stats: https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2025/net-teamsheets-plus#google_vignette