The Colorado Rockies are in the middle of a difficult stretch of years. After back-to-back postseason trips in 2017 and 2018, the team has been in a free-fall state for six consecutive seasons. Discourse behind the scenes led to an exodus of players like Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, while dysfunction has also hampered the team’s decision-making to rebuild and put forth a quality product.  Expectations are low for the Rockies entering the 2025 season after losing 100-plus games for the second year in a row last season, but in order to change their fortunes the team will need young stars to continue taking steps forward, old faces to find old forms, and some players to rebound to the potential they showed prior.

One of the major disappointments for the Rockies in 2024 was the decline of 2023 breakout star Nolan Jones. After a stellar campaign where he hit .297 with 20 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and 62 RBI in 106 games to finish fourth in Rookie of the Year voting, Jones’ production plummeted last season. He played in just 79 games last season due to back and knee issues, batting a paltry .227/.321/.320 with just three home runs. The injuries played a key role in sapping the power, but there was also the mental aspect of the self-imposed pressure Jones placed upon himself.

“I had high expectations for myself based on what I did last year,” said Jones back in November to MLB.com’s Manny Randhawa. “And then to run into failure so early, with error after error, I was just thinking, ‘What is going on here?’ The whole offseason, I worked my tail off. And then five games into the year, I’m looking up and I have four errors.”

The moment in question was what happened in Chicago when a base hit from then-Cubs player Christopher Morel rolled underneath Jones’ glove in left field. The ball rolled all the way to the ivy-covered wall at Wrigley Field, allowing two runs to score. He chased the ball down but his throw back to the infield was offline and skipped off the glove of former Rockies second baseman Brendan Rodgers, allowing Morel to score the Little League home run. The play had come just a day after Jones dropped a routine fly ball in Arizona that allowed another Diamondbacks run to score instead of ending the inning.

There were also the aspects off the field where Jones and his fiancée welcomed a daughter in August but dealt with the parental anguish and concern for her well-being as fluid was discovered in her lungs and she had to be on supplemental oxygen. Thankfully his daughter is healthy and fine now, but that type of concern in the middle of a grueling season certainly didn’t make things easy for Jones.

However, there was hope to be found in the final stretch of play for the outfielder at the end of the season. In 191 plate appearances prior to the All-Star break, Jones hit .203/.311/.313 but he was able to improve that to .269/.340/.333 over his final 106 plate appearances. It was a strong way to finish the season even if the power wasn’t present.

So what is there to expect from Jones in 2025?

For the Rockies, it’s certainly a hope that the 27-year-old former first-round pick can return to that 2023 form. A relaxed and healthy offseason should hopefully help Jones re-focus and enter 2025 with a little less stress on his shoulders, something he can attribute to focusing on being a dad more than just a ball player.

“My priorities got flipped this season — I had my first daughter, and that’s all that matters now,” Jones said to MLB.com’s Thomas Harding at Spring Training. “It’s something that I’m going to use to my advantage — she doesn’t care if I go for 4-for-4. I’m going to go home and get a kiss from her. And we have so many good people in this locker room, I’m just relying on them and rallying around them. That’s what’s going to help us get to the next level.”

Projections are certainly favoring a Jones rebound of sorts. The ZiPS projections (a system of player projections developed by FanGraph’s Dan Szymborski when he was at Baseball Think Factory) has Jones playing in 113 games with a .261 AVG, 14 home runs, and .787 OPS to be worth 1.8 fWAR. His strong tendency to draw walks projects an 11.7% while strikeouts will continue to come in close to 30%.

The strikeouts have always been part of Jones’ profile as a hitter and it’s something the Rockies hope he can improve upon this season, but more important would be his ability to make adjustments at the plate and swing at the right pitches. Jones found himself a bit too patient in 2024, getting caught looking on pitches on the outer part of the plate and missing pitches when he would swing. His quick hands and extended frame allow him to spray the ball across the field, but he was noticeably behind on a number of pitches last season when on the field.

A return to form in the outfield would also be in store for Jones entering the season. Practically still a rookie when it comes to outfield defense, Jones barely picked up the position prior to debuting with the Cleveland Guardians in 2022. However, he turned heads in 2023 when he procured 19 outfield assists for the Rockies and has shown off a huge arm that averages 98.9 mph on throws. The routing and glove work is still in progress and the miscues were noticeable last season. With a surplus of young outfielders vying for a spot, Jones will have that extra motivation in camp to try and rectify those mistakes and play the Gold Glove-caliber defense he has shown in the outfield. Left field is particularly difficult in Colorado due to the spacious area to cover, essentially requiring two center fielders to cover the field. Jones has the luxury of playing next to two-time Gold Glover Brenton Doyle which could have the makings of one of the greatest defensive outfield duos in team history.

2025 will be a proving year for Jones. The Rockies are trying to rebuild and if he’s unable to re-capture some of the magic of that rookie season he may find his time in Colorado fleeting. Still, he provides a unique five-tool skill set that the Rockies would very much like to keep employing in the outfield and have him take his place as a main cog in the team over the next few years and herald in a new competitive window.

The new season will be a difficult one for Jones by no small means, but if he can rebound and be the player the Rockies believe he can be, there is an All-Star potential that could be one of the most exciting and dynamic players in baseball.