As the Colorado Rockies gear up for the 2025 season, one of the most intriguing storylines is the potential emergence of top pitching prospect Chase Dollander. Selected ninth overall in the 2023 MLB Draft from the University of Tennessee, Dollander dazzled in his first professional season in 2024, earning an invitation to big league camp this spring for the first time. The question on everyone’s mind: Does Dollander have a legitimate shot at cracking the Rockies’ starting rotation out of Spring Training?

Since joining the Rockies organization, Dollander has showcased the talent that made him a first-round pick. His fastball, which sits in the mid-90s, combined with a sharp breaking ball and an improving changeup, has impressed scouts and coaches alike. In his first full season, he went 6-2 with a 2.59 ERA in a combined 23 starts and 118 innings at High-A Spokane and Double-A Hartford and appeared at the All-Star Futures Game.  All signs point the right-hander sitting on the fast track to the big leagues and the team certainly hopes he can be the poster child for the next generation of pitchers, but actually making the roster out of camp isn’t a certainty.

As it stands the Rockies’ projected starting rotation for 2025 includes familiar names: Germán Márquez, Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner, Austin Gomber, and Antonio Senzatela. Márquez, returning from Tommy John surgery, has expressed confidence in his health and readiness to lead the staff while Freeland and Senzatela have been mainstays in the rotation, while Feltner and Gomber have provided quality depth at the backend of the rotation in recent seasons. Still, injuries have hampered all members of the projected rotation so it’s unclear how cohesive and effective they will all be.

Márquez and Gomber are set to become free agents after this season while Freeland and Senzatela aren’t far off over the next few seasons. 2025 will be a year of rebuilding for the Rockies with an eye toward the future and it’s a year where the Rockies may feel a little more motivated to improve upon a unit that has declined sharply since the 2018 season.

That is why it’s been encouraging to hear from the front office that despite the established rotation young pitchers will be given a fair opportunity to compete for starting roles. General Manager Bill Schmidt emphasized that the team is open to considering prospects who distinguish themselves during camp, specifically Dollander while potentially moving one of the rotation pieces to the bullpen.

“You’ve got arguably one of the most dominating in-zone fastballs in the minor leagues overall,” Rockies farm director Chris Forbes said. “If he comes into this camp and he’s one of our best five starters, (GM) Bill (Schmidt) is adamant about wanting (to give him a shot). Then you could break him in in that four or five spot, with all signs continuing to point to developing him into an ace.”

Forbes is just one of many in notable roles for the Rockies who were impressed with Dollander’s development and make-up as a pitcher. This was a pitcher initially thought to have a chance to go first overall after his 2022 season in college. However, a difficult year in 2023 caused him to slide down the draft boards where he landed with the Rockies. The team was confident they could help him return to form and after his first season already showing the inklings of that work paying off.

Dollander cracking the big league roster would certainly signal the team is actually following through on their belief of being a draft and developing the type of team with a focus on letting the youth play to help foster long-term success.

So what would it take for Dollander to secure a spot in the Opening Day rotation? Several factors will come into play:

Excelling against major league hitters during Spring Training games will be crucial. Dollander has to demonstrate command of his pitches, the ability to handle high-pressure situations, and adaptability against seasoned batters. Throwing strikes is a great part of his make-up, but the jump from Double-A hitters to Major League hitters is a big one and Dollander has to prove he can miss bats while throwing competitive pitches.

Injuries are an ever-present concern in baseball. Should any of the projected starters face setbacks, opportunities could arise for prospects like Dollander to fill the void.

The Rockies may also opt to manage the service time of their top prospects, potentially influencing decisions about Opening Day roster spots. Additionally, considerations about player development and long-term performance may lead the team to start Dollander in the minors, allowing him to gain more experience before leaping into the majors. While Dollander could certainly make the jump to the bigs, skipping Triple-A entirely, a stop in Albuquerque could help Dollander adjust to pitching at a higher altitude and offensively friendly ballpark. Though that can be a gamble as Albuquerque and the Pacific Coast League have a tendency to hurt pitcher’s confidence.

Dollander isn’t the only young pitcher vying for attention this spring. The Rockies’ farm system boasts several promising arms, including Carson Palmqauist and Sean Sullivan, alongside Bradley Blalock and Tanner Gordon both of whom made starts with the club last season. Each brings a unique skill set, but Dollander’s combination of velocity, pitch movement, and mound presence arguably sets him apart as the most MLB-ready among them.

Still, Dollander has proven to be a meticulous and hardworking student of the game. MLB.com’s Thomas Harding chronicled Dollander’s journaling tendencies to recap starts and find news to improve upon and continue to utilize throughout the season.

“So I journal every night – put my thoughts down on paper. That time, as soon as I closed the journal, it was over with. It was time to go to sleep. It was time to be a person. It was time to put Chase Dollander, the athlete, to rest and look forward to the next day.”

His perspective and humility could be exactly what the team needs and it should give him an advantage as he enters his first big league training camp.

While the path to the Rockies’ 2025 starting rotation is steep, Dollander possesses the talent and determination to make a compelling case. His performance in Spring Training will be pivotal, and if he can capitalize on the opportunities presented, there’s a realistic chance that Rockies fans will see him on the mound come Opening Day. Still, it’s going to take quite a bit as the team doesn’t have to be a hurry to rush him to the big leagues, especially with what seems to be a well-established rotation at the moment. Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t crack through for Opening Day. Regardless of the immediate outcome, Dollander’s future with the organization appears bright, and his development will be a key storyline to watch as the season unfolds.