Anyone who’s spent time in a supermarket lately is well aware of the impact inflation is having on groceries. I like grapes as much as the next person, but I shouldn’t have to take out a bank loan to buy a bunch. Prices are high, and consumers are feeling the pinch.

That pinch is more like a shark bite when it comes to the NFL quarterback market. Teams who believe they have their franchise signal-callers are locking them up on deals that would make a Saudi prince blush. Josh Allen got $330 million over six years from the Bills. Joe Burrow got $275 million over five years from the Bengals. Jalen Hurts got $255 million over five years from Philadelphia. Hurts’ deal now seems like a bargain considering Philly just won the Super Bowl, and Hurts was named MVP.

Allen, Burrow and Hurts are in the elite tier of NFL quarterbacks, so their massive contracts shouldn’t seem so surprising. It’s like buying a house on the beach. You can’t get sticker-shock when shopping for prime real estate. But out in the quarterback suburbs, where the product isn’t as exclusive, the numbers remain eye-popping.

$275 million for Trevor Lawrence, whose Jacksonville team has gone 13-21 the past two seasons? $230 million for Kyler Murray, whose Cardinals have one winning record in the six seasons he’s been their starter? I won’t even get into the Deshaun Watson and Kirk Cousins contract fiascos, which have hamstrung their respective franchises in various ways.

The bottom line is clear: you can’t win big without a high-end quarterback, and if you get one — or even think you have one, the way the Jags and Cardinals do — you pay the man. Call it the cost of doing business in the modern NFL.

But what about those teams who are still seeking their franchise guy? Where do they turn for answers?

Free agency isn’t a great option. Elite quarterbacks rarely hit the market these days, which means it tends to be littered with lower-end candidates. This year, Sam Darnold and Justin Fields were the best free agent quarterbacks available. Darnold had a stellar season in Minnesota in 2024, but his larger body of work has been underwhelming. Fields showed promise in his six starts in Pittsburgh, but has never sustained the consistency or success expected of a player drafted 11th overall. Seattle and the New York Jets, who signed Darnold and Fields, respectively, are gambling they’ve found their long-term solutions at the position. History says don’t take that bet.

Some teams use free agency to find a “bridge” quarterback, meaning a player to keep their head above water for a year or two until they figure out a more permanent solution. Count the Pittsburgh Steelers, who signed Mason Rudolph and are courting Aaron Rodgers, and the New York Giants, who are are opting for a Russell Wilson/Jameis Winston tag-team, among them. The bridge solution, while understandable, is an acknowledgement that the team does not expect to seriously compete in the upcoming season. In that regard, it’s a bit like franchise purgatory, suspended between promise and despair.

Which brings us to the NFL draft. This is where a hunter can most reliably bag the sacred prey that is the franchise quarterback. Allen, Burrow, Hurts, Mahomes, Jackson, Herbert, Prescott, Daniels, Stroud. They were all acquired by their respective teams through the draft. Because of this, the value of quarterbacks has skyrocketed. Last year, six quarterbacks were taken among the first twelve picks overall, which was a record. In 2023, three of the first four picks were QBs. Agreement has been universal that the best overall players in recent drafts have not been quarterbacks. Still, because of the value of that position, they’re being drafted extremely high, whether they’re worth it or not.

In 2023, Carolina spent the top overall pick on Bryce Young, a 5’11-195 pound quarterback from Alabama who had never been trained in an NFL-style offense. Young was thrust into the starting lineup, where he had a miserable rookie season and was eventually benched. Young rebounded to finish his second season on a positive note. But the jury remains out on whether he’s the long-term solution in Carolina.

Picking fourth that year, the Colts selected Anthony Richardson of Florida, who had completed just 54% of his passes over twelve college starts. Few pundits believed Richardson was worth the fourth overall pick in the draft, but Indianapolis took him because Richardson had ridiculous physical gifts and because, well, they needed a quarterback. It’s too early to tell how things will turn out with Richardson. But the Colts just signed Daniel Jones to compete with him for the starting job, which doesn’t bode well for his prospects.

The quarterback crop in 2022 was very weak. Still, drafting 21st overall, the Steelers took a chance on hometown boy Kenny Pickett out of the University of Pittsburgh. Most draft experts felt Pickett was a third-round talent, but Ben Roethlisberger had retired and the Steelers needed an heir. Pickett won some games in Pittsburgh, but never played at a high level. The Steelers eventually dealt him to Philadelphia for a low-round draft pick.

This year, Cam Ward is the consensus top quarterback. Ward is likely to be chosen first overall by the Tennessee Titans. Ward is a nice player, and could become a legitimate franchise guy. But many believe he would not have been one of the first five quarterbacks selected a year ago. Ward looks good among this year’s candidates, but his broader value is not nearly as high.

The quarterback ranked behind Ward, Shedeur Sanders, makes spectacular plays at times, but struggles to do ordinary things consistently. Many see him as a developmental prospect who should be chosen late in the first or even early in the second round. Odds are Sanders will go much higher than that, perhaps even second overall to the Browns.

The third-rated quarterback is Jaxson Dart. Following impressive performances at the NFL Scouting Combine and his Pro Day at Mississippi, Dart has been rising up draft boards. He was once thought of as a late-second or early-third round prospect. Now, he’s being mentioned as a potential Top-10 pick. Dart played in an offense at Ole Miss that, while highly successful, simplified the reads of the quarterback and used tempo to limit defensive diversity. That won’t be the case in the NFL. It would be best if Dart could go to a team where he could sit and learn for awhile. If he’s a high pick, however, he may not have that luxury.

What about Alabama’s Jalen Milroe? Reports this week suggested the Steelers could take him with their top pick, #21 overall. That’s where they took Pickett, which was a mistake. Choosing Milroe there could repeat that history. Milroe is a phenomenal talent, but like Dart, his ability to process and read coverage is nowhere near NFL-ready. Is he a Round 1 pick? Historically, no. But the inflated quarterback market may make him one.

Ultimately, the value of a thing is determined by what someone is willing to pay for it. I’ve stopped buying grapes in our local grocery store because they’re not worth the price. The same is not true of quarterbacks. You can’t win without a great one, which means NFL teams won’t stop investing, even when the price outweighs the production.