With the Phillies heading out to Wrigley, they are in store for a highly challenging series against the best team in the NL Central right now. The Cubs are hot, and although the Phillies had a similar start to the season, they are now starting to cool off, worrying anyone who cares about this Philadelphia team. Right now, the Cubs have a 70% chance of winning tonight and a 55% chance of taking the series, especially if they continue to ride the momentum that built up in their 11-10 win over the Dodgers a few nights ago. While the Phillies have been known to beat the odds that are always stacked against them, this might not be the series we expect where the Phils can walk away with another series win (because a sweep is, at this point, out of the question).

Taijuan Walker will take the mound tonight for the visiting Phillies, and Colin Rea will be hurling for the Cubs. This matchup, to me, is a red flag immediately because Taijuan, who has gotten the tiniest bit better from the start of his 2024 campaign, is known to throw juicy meatballs right down the heart of the plate. The longball is his kryptonite, and the Cubs have been swinging it enough to raise some warning bells. With sluggers like Ian Happ, Kyle Tucker, and Seiya Suzuki in the lineup today, in addition to contact hitters Pete Crow-Armstrong, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Horner, the Cubs have a lineup that could make today’s starter have to work (thus bringing back up the bullpen issue that was glaringly evident in the series against the Mets). Not to mention that the first game’s starter against the Phillies, Rea, has one of the best stat lines amongst starting pitchers right now with a 1.32 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP this season in his 13.2 innings pitched. Without even looking ahead to tomorrow or Sunday’s matchups, the Phillies are already in trouble against Rea because only three of the starting nine are hitting above .230 against him: Schwarber, Kepler, and Realmuto. Everyone else is hitting .222 against him or lower, most notably Bryce Harper, who is 0-10 against Rea in his career.

Looking ahead to the rest of the series, game two provides the Phillies with a little more hope as southpaw Jesus Luzardo will take the mound against Ben Brown, who, in his sophomore year with the Cubs, is currently sitting at a 4.57 ERA with a 1.75 WHIP. It’s worth mentioning that Brown is currently working with a 6.75 ERA while pitching at home, having lost both starts he made there at Wrigley, but managed to collect sixteen strikeouts while pitching at home. The Phils’ starter, Luzardo, has been stunning in his first few games with his new team, posting an away ERA of 2.45 with 17 strikeouts and three walks in just eleven innings pitched outside the maroon and navy gates of Citizens Bank Park. Today’s starter for the Cubs, Rea, is to the Phillies what Luzardo will be for the Cubs tomorrow, a tough start with just two mainstays in the Cubs lineup hitting above .230 against him (only Carson Kelly and Dansby Swanson have seen moderate success against him, and something else to note is that Kyle Tucker is currently batting only .077 against him).

Sunday night’s game is where the wheels truly can come off, as it’s no secret that Aaron Nola has not been looking like himself on the mound as of late. He’s slotted to start the Sunday Night Baseball broadcast on ESPN against the Cubs’ Jameson Tallion. The Phillies have had moderate success against Tallion, batting .290 against him as a team with an on-base percentage (OBP) of .340. While Nola’s numbers against the Cubs are better on paper, with how he’s been pitching as of late, it would not be a shock to see the Cubs’ respectable average of .247 average and .289 OBP balloon up, especially with Nola’s 2025 away ERA of 5.94 (he’s lost all three of his starts away from CBP).

These two teams are about as evenly matched as it gets right now, with even this Phillies fan thinking the Cubs will have a slight edge over them. Will the fans that occupy Wrigley hear “Go, Cubs, Go” for the next three nights, or will Phillies fans get to sing their victory anthem by the end of this series? Only time will tell, especially with game one kicking off this afternoon at 2:20 PM EST out in Chi-town.