Don’t Expect MSU to Peek Ahead; Preview and Keys to Avoiding a Trap Game

Tom Izzo had his regular press conference Tuesday afternoon after their practice. With Iowa looming on a trip to Iowa City, the Spartans head coach was asked about if he’s spoken to his team about the regular season to partially share, with a win Thursday night and as true to his “fat and sassy” remark about staying humble, he delivered the same:

” I didn’t bring it up; honestly didn’t and I’ll tell you why I didn’t [bring it up]. I want to put ourselves in a position where the goal is to win the games…yes, we need to win the games to win the league (Big Ten), we need to win the games to for seeds (NCAA) and we need to win the games to better ourselves in just getting better, especially offensively. Once we beat Maryland, we didn’t need any help from anyone…I liked that mentality ‘take care of your own business.‘”

Back-to-back B1G Freshman of the Week honors for @JaseRich4 🏀 pic.twitter.com/TlGTUhxl8f

— Michigan State Men’s Basketball (@MSU_Basketball) March 3, 2025

The Hawkeyes are in free-fall, having dropped 9 of their last 11 games. At one point end the end of 2024, they were 10-3 with actually quality loses to Utah St (24-6), 2 points to Michigan and 9 to top 10 Iowa State. Once 2025 turned, so did their season along with losing sophomore leading-scorer, Owen Freeman (16.7 ppg, 6.7 reb, 63.8% FG, 1.3 apg and 1.8 blocks).

Despite the injury, Iowa still relies on their starting 5 to log heavy minutes. Payton Sandfort (16.1 ppg, 6.2 reb, 3.0 apg, 87.9% FT), Josh Dix (14.0 ppg, 3.1 reb, 2.7 apg, 50.5% FG, 77.8 FT, 42.0% 3-pt), both play 30+ minutes a game with Drew Thelwell (9.8 ppg, 2.2 reb, 2.9 apg and 1.6 steals, 52.4% FG) Brock Harding (8.8 ppg, 2.2 reb, 5.4 agp, 1.7 steals and 75.6% FT) average 25+ minutes each. Pryce Sandfort averages 21.8 minutes a game (8.4 ppg, 2.4 reb, 1.3 agp) while Seydou Traore, Cooper Koch and Ladji Dembele check in between 13 and 16 minutes a game. In short, 8-man rotation with little opportunity for the rest.

MSU will be focused on defense trying to slow down the conference’s leading points getter. Iowa (34th Ken Pom OffRtg) has certainly shown the ability to score and score like they’re in the SEC with Alabama, Auburn and Kentucky. However, the Spartans have run through the 5-game gauntlet holding all 5 opponents to under 70 points which no team has done in 2024-2025 against 5 Quad 1 teams consecutively. Iowa has struggled on defense, mostly in the 2025 portion, ranked 169th in Ken Pom DefRtg.

They will welcome being allowed to run out in transition if Iowa allows it. If Iowa can’t believe their defense can’t bend far before breaking, their best bet is to just put up as many shots as possible. Getting into a free throw battle is already a disadvantage and MSU is among the best at taking and converting free throws. Iowa simply doesn’t have the depth to fight that battle of attrition. I would expect MSU to obtain multiple 10+ point leads and a few rallies by Iowa as that’s been fairly commonly recently until about the 5-minute mark.

Syzmon Zapala and Tre Holloman should have opportunities for bounce back games. Tre had a world game against Michigan and then went stone cold vs Maryland. Zapala’s is more self-inflicted, foul trouble. While he is fun to watch and busts his rear end, he simply has not made the adjustments necessary on defense to keep himself on the floor and contributing with his athleticism. The front court becomes challenging if him and Xavier Booker can’t execute while making mistakes on top of it and puts the strain on Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler and Coen Carr. The tempo might allow for some fast break points for Syzmon when Carr is not streaking down the sideline looking to rattle the roof. Jase will continue to develop and let’s see if Jeremy Fears has the confidence to trust his shot a bit more as he must have that growth to be an effective Big Ten-point guard. Right now, teams are essentially giving him uncontested 3’s and longer mid-range looks, mostly sagging off and into the paint. MSU will lean on running clock if they obtain a 20+ point lead. The objective, win and get out healthy for their senior night vs. the other school. Bigger fish to fry.

Game- Thursday, FS1 at 8:00pm EST.

BIG TEN TITLE COUNTER: 2

***Should MI lose Wednesday night, that clinches a share. If MSU wins too on Thursday, the regular season is Michigan State’s, outright***

Record/Rankings & More:

24-5 (15-3, 1st-Big Ten) Rankings: #8 AP / #7 Coaches Poll
Updated KenPom- Off: 32nd / Def: 5th. Adjusted Tempo: 160th. SOS Net Rtg: 33rd +12.73

Updated Bart Torvik- ADJOE: 43rd/ADJDE: 6th / EFF.FGD%: 45.7 (12th) / ORBD %: 36.2 (17th) & DRBD %: 24.9 (11th)

Other Metrics: KPI (6th), ESPN SoR (7th), ESPN BPI (12th), T-Rank: 15th — #8 in FT % (79.3%), #13 in FTM/game (17.3)/ #44 in FTA/game (21.8)

FULL KenPom Stats: https://kenpom.com/index.php

FULL Bart Torvik Stats: https://barttorvik.com/#

FULL T-Rank Stats: https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2025/net-teamsheets-plus#google_vignette