MSU Hosts Oregon, Matchup Breakdown

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MSU Hosts Oregon, Matchup Breakdown

MSU Hosts Oregon, Matchup Breakdown

Ducks Make First Trip to MSU in Program History, Both Teams Looking to Shake Recent Slumps

The only players on MSU’s roster to have seen Oregon back in 2022 at the Phil Knight Invitational (74-70 win) were Carson Cooper, Tre Holloman and Jaxon Kohler. However, they will see them this time back at the friendly confines of The Breslin Center on Saturday. In Oregon’s first visit to MSU, we will breakdown the matchup as both teams are hoping to end their losing streak, but only one will successfully.

As we enter the second week of February, it’s a “win by any means necessary” mode for teams jostling for conference tournament seeding and trying to add resume building wins for the NCAA Tournament Committee. MSU (18-4, 9-2) faltered on their recent west coast trip and was 40+ seconds away with control and a 1-point lead from bouncing back at UCLA. Oregon (16-7, 5-7) lost Wednesday night in Ann Arbor and have their skid at 3 games and lost 4 of their last 5 contests. Given each team’s early success, this has the potential to bring out some of the nastier sides of both teams as they look to right the ship amongst a grueling stretch for the upper echelon of the Big Ten.

Coach Izzo had the following to say post-UCLA game per Detroit Free Press’ Chris Solair (link for full article below):

“I just think we take some bad shots at times. And these step-back 3s that some of our veterans are taking, I’m going to send those to a different planet.”
“It was a physical game both ways, and I’m not sure we handled that from a guard position as well,” Izzo said. “And some of the turnovers were just — I mean, we should have gave helmets to some of the people in the first row, because the ball was just kind of flying over there, and it’s BS.”
Chris Solari- How Can MSU Fix Sloppy Play?

TALE OF THE FEATHERS (TAPE):

Team Rankings has this matchup as the 8th best contest on the calendar for Saturday. MSU owns an overall +7.7-point, combined margin difference.

Head Coach Dana Altman is no stranger to Eugene and has manned the helm for 14 years, owning an impressive 770-397 record (.660%) with assistant stops at Western Colorado (1980-1982), Kansas State (1986-1989) and then leading Marshall (1989-1990), Kansas State (1990-1994) and Creighton (1994-2010) before becoming the head man for the Ducks. Oregon last made the Final four in 2017 and won the Pac-12’s last Conference Tournament Championship in 2024, totaling 4 each of regular season and conference tournament titles.

Altman’s team ranks in the T50 in both Ken Pom overall offensive and defensive ratings and check in with an 8th overall Net Rating. Aside from that, Bart Tovik doesn’t show a single category close to MSU besides 3-PT % Defense at 64th (31.4) compared to MSU’s 13th (29.1). Despite Oregon only recently coming off the Top-25 rankings, this will only be a Quad 2 game for MSU but a Quad 1 chance for the Ducks.

The Ducks starting lineup consists of all 5 players averaging 9+ ppg with the following at 10+: Nate Bittle (Sr-C) 12.7ppg, 7.2 rbs, 1.9 blk (50.9% FG, 77.9% FT) , Jackson Shelstad (So-G) at 12.5 ppg, 2.7 apg and leads the team at 88.2% FT with TJ Bamba (Sr-G) averaging 10.7 ppg, 3.7 rbs, 2.5 apg, 1.8 spg. The team shoots a respectable 75.6% from the charity stripe (57th) and 73.9% on the road.

Shelstad plays a heavy 32+ minutes a game with 5 others averaging 23+ minutes a game and 3 other reserves logging 11-14.5 minutes a game. All-in-all, Coach Altman goes about 7-9 deep regularly but the production tends to dip off a bit on on players 7-9. Shelstad and fellow guard Keeshawn Barthelemy have put up 200+ 3-pointers and shoot an average of 38% roughly, which is considerably better than any volume combination that MSU has. Bamba and Bittle have put up 70+ each but shoot a dismal 25% and 31%, respectively. This puts them 200th in 3-pt %.

Oregon plays a similar paced game to MSU and defends the 3-pointer well, ranking 64th per Bart Tovik (31.4). Aside from that, Oregon has had some more luck per Ken Pom. While Bittle may present an issue at 7’0″, MSU will counter with their depth and throwing multiple looks at him to slow his effort and put more on his teammates. I expect MSU to return to their tried-and-true of inside-out movement and creating lanes and back door picks/slips for alley oops and higher-percentage looks that favor their 2-point shooting and return to being physical on the glass. Oregon has struggled in their slum scoring and would anticipate Coach Izzo and his staff, to break out more in transition to create more fast break points, paint points and continue to grind down defensive efforts by utilizing their FTM edge (5th in the nation) to their definitive advantage.

Numbers aside, this may be a game of will-power, grit and could show some bad blood as both teams are licking their wounds and eager for a quality, resume building win. For MSU, it would keep them in pace with now slight conference leader, Purdue, for the #1 seed race and regular season title within possibility. Oregon really needs it to boost their assuredly at-large bid resume for the committee. Stay tuned on Saturday, 12:00pm EST on FOX as these two square off for the first time, as Big Ten foes.