Auburn Earns Overall #1 Seed, MSU paired with Tigers in South

Let the conspiracy begin. UNC made the bracket after being out in MANY expert projections but at the end of the day, Bubba Cunningham (UNC AD) as the Committe Chair President, denied any involvement in putting them in as the First 4 In, over Indiana, OSU, WVU and Boise St (who beat SDSU in their conference tournament semifinal, and SDSU made it as Last 4 In).

THE 2025 MEN’S MARCH MADNESS BRACKET IS HERE! 🚨⤵️

(via @MarchMadnessMBB) pic.twitter.com/b1AQEiHkYl

— theScore (@theScore) March 16, 2025

At the end, Indiana was facing an uphill battle the past 4-6 weeks since it was announced Mike Woodson would not be returning as Head Coach but his Hoosiers made a valiant push that fell short. OSU really hadn’t done enough to seriously be considered, lacking quality wins despite a tough conference slate while WVU was victim to injuries and availability beyond this weekend. Beyond that, I don’t think there are any credible snubs to discuss as there weren’t many spots stolen from the conference tournaments that would’ve radically changed the outcome. SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 all went to teams were a lock for an at-large but if there was one additional swap, I’m taking Boise St over Xavier (who played in a very top-heavy Big East considering UCONN had a bad year while Marquette fell off the final 3-4 weeks). Other than that, let’s do a brief recap of the regions and narrow down in on MSU’s opponent.

Make it 27 straight seasons of Michigan State men’s basketball punching its ticket to the NCAA Tournament.

The Spartans are the No. 2 seed and will head to face No. 15 seed Bryant in Cleveland. @wilxTV pic.twitter.com/ei7eY2YT4U

— Owen Oszust (@Owen_Oszust) March 16, 2025

SOUTH TOP DOGS:

Auburn (somewhat surprising) was the overall #1 seed (South) with Duke (East), Houston (Midwest) and Florida (West) rounding out the top seeds. Now we’ll look at the lurking squads under each. Auburn has #2 MSU (6 overall) with #3 Iowa St, #4 Texas A&M and #5 Michigan (others include Ole Miss, Louisville/Creighton and Marquette). Overall, Iowa State is without Keshon Gilbert for the rest of the post season after missing four of their last seven games as a groin injury proved to be too much and will have to watch from the bench. Many now speculate that withholding critical player availability from the public and committee will be the new standard in the hopes of higher seed lines or even just at-large consideration.

The region sets up well for MSU but Auburn will be a matchup that could catapult them to a Final Four as it could be Ole Miss who MSU sees instead of ISU. Marquette fell flat on their face and out of the top 3 in the Big East after holding a share through the end of January. Auburn will have an early test with Louisville/Creighton winner and Michigan will have a test with Texas A&M, baring an upset from UC San Diego (which could be an intriguing upset spot as UCSD boasts the nation’s longest winnings streak and lies in the popular 5/12 combo). This is either Auburn or MSU’s region to win as they are just a pair of considerably more consistent and complete teams in the field, especially when it comes to Quad 1 records and final KenPom offensive and defensive ratings.

WEST TOP DOGS:

Florida took down Alabama and Tennessee to win the SEC Conference Tournament and will be joined by #2 St Johns who swept the Big East, #3 Texas Tech, #4 Maryland and #5 Memphis (who swept the AAC). Some teams to keep an eye on; #6 Missouri, who could see Texas Tech in the 2nd round and a very intriguing matchup of HOF coaches in #7 Kansas with Bill Self and #10 Arkansas with John Calipari. Florida really only has Maryland to contend with. While St John’s could be there, they have a very tough road with the KU/ARK winner in round 2, followed by an eventual matchup between Missouri and Texas Tech unless Drake decides to crash the party and bounce Mizzou to setup a very interesting matchup with the Red Raiders. Memphis has their own injury issue in losing starting PG Tyrese Hunter who left the AAC semifinal game and returned in a walking boot. His status is uncertain, but rumors are hot that he may not be ready for the first weekend leaving many to actually fade Memphis outright as losing such a dynamic star would Memphis potentially vulnerable to a first-round exit. Follow that closely as their success has been a big credit to his play and would be the only threat Florida would see until the Sweet 16, which may very well still be Maryland. Look for the regional winner of Florida/Maryland to come out of the West.

EAST TOP DOGS:

Duke was the one of two P4 team to sweep both titles, in the ACC but questions are swirling about NBA lottery pick, Cooper Flagg and his status after severely spraining his ankle and not appearing in the ACC Tournament Title game. They are followed by #2 Alabama #3 Wisconsin, #4 Arizona and #5 Oregon in an interesting blend of top 5 teams. This is region could produce some upsets as Arizona and Oregon have struggled a bit on defense, relying on offense to overcome some of those deficiencies, leading to some potential shootouts. While Wisconsin made a run, Alabama and Oregon are the better teams as the Badgers went 1-5 against MSU, Michigan, and Oregon but does have a noted outcome with a win vs Arizona and a loss to Marquette. While BYU could make some noise, if they’re not upset by VCU, this region is littered with potential second round and Sweet 16 combinations. This region could produce any of the top 5, besides Arizona who just didn’t have enough quality wins to instill confidence to make a run to the Final Four.

MIDWEST TOP DOGS:

Houston swept the Big 12 but surprisingly, was not chosen to anchor the West as many had them pinned for. Instead, they have #2 Tennessee, #3 Kentucky (cue the eyebrow raises), #4 Purdue and #5 Clemson. Tennessee gave Florida all they could handle, and Clemson was a very intriguing ACC team who gave their entire conference fits and, in some respects, exceeded expectations by a considerable margin. UCLA is a sneaky team at #7 who fixed some mid-conference struggles including a very public chastising by head coach Mick Cronin who responded very well, winning critical games down the stretch before a short showing in their first Big Ten tournament. The Bruins defense will give them a chance against just about anyone in this region and boy, will they be tested accordingly. Houston will have to dodge the winner of Gonzaga/Georgia and then probably Clemson (unless Will Wade and McNeese make a popular 12 upset over a 5). Either way, this is an odd grouping and not entirely sowed for Houston to return to their home state for the Final 4. Aside like many, I don’t believe the Zags were really given a raw deal on the draw line. They’ve fallen short of their usual standard and the conference just doesn’t hold the weight needed to give them a boost out of the 8/9 conversation. McNeese is the odds-on favorite to slip into Cinderella’s heel and shock the country as Coach Wade rumors swirl about him and the Indiana Hoosier vacancy. Kentucky didn’t do enough to earn a 3 seed line despite being in the SEC. They were certainly given a bump thanks to their conference SOS and a saturated list of SEC (14) teams that made it. Purdue was elite until early-mid February and fell off considerably in conference play. The chalk of Houston vs. Tennessee seems destined to happen in this region. Expect some low-scoring, drag-em out type of games where the first team to 60 wins as the Midwest boasts a collection of quality defenses.

#2 MSU vs. #15 Bryant Bulldogs

The Spartans drew the Bryant Bulldogs who swept the America East are an interesting team. They rely heavily on their starters, but they are coach by Phil Martelli Jr., whose father was the associate head coach at Michigan under Juwan Howard, is no stranger to Michigan based teams. Martelli Jr. played at Saint Joeseph’s and become the youngest ever full time Division 1 assist coach at 22 years old a Central Connecticut State in 2003 and has been at Bryant since 2018. He’s largely stayed in the east/northeast and this is his first head coaching stop. Will his experience be enough to challenge Coach Izzo and the Spartans?

He is led by Rafael Pinzon (G): 33.6 minutes, 18.5 ppg, 8.2 rbp, 2.2 assists, 2.4 turnovers, 42.4 FG%, 88.5 FT % and 38.5 % 3-pt; Eary Timberlake (G): 35.9 minutes, 15.5 ppg, 8.2 rbp, 4.7 assists, 2.4 turnovers, 50.3 FG %, 71.9 FT % and 36% 3-pt; Barry Evans (F): 32.8 minutes, 13.5 ppg, 6.9 rbp, 2.7 assists, 1.4 steals, 2.0 turnovers, 37.9 FG%, 65/8 FT % and 33.2 % 3-pt; Connor WIthers (F): 34.3 minutes, 11.3 ppg, 5.6 rbp, 3.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.4 blocks and 2.0 turnovers; and Keyshawn Mitchell (F) – 20.2 minutes, 8.5 ppg, 6.9 rbp, 53% FG, 57.5 FT % and 32.1 % 3-pt.

The bench is largely between Kvonn Cramer, Jakai Robinson and Kam Ferris along with a smattering of 3-4 others who have played in only 10-15 games.

From a metric standpoint, Bryant had a KenPom 178th offense and 1148th defense but they do play fast. Their adjusted tempo comes in at 7th in the nation and that is why they have some inflated offensive numbers. More possessions, more shots = chance for more points. Given their bench is shorter and does not log as many minutes, tells us they are well conditioned to sustain that tempo. Some other areas (Bart Torvik) of note include 42nd in EFG Def, Offensive Rebounding at 54th, 2-pt Def % at 44th and are 83rd in 3-pt EFG Def. However, they are a whopping -7.1 WAB (Wins Above Bubble) and their starters are well documented to cough the ball up.

This will come down to depth, transition offense/defense, pounding the glass and finishing at the free throw line. All things that MSU carry top marks in. MSU will be keen to run at times but will prefer to control the tempo, grind Byrant down and make them play a physical, half court style as they have only 1 player over 6’9″ who plays regular minutes. MSU should be able to dominate the rebounding margin and use the offensive second chance opportunities to really put this game out of reach along with their elite FT shooting/rate and superior 2-pt defensive FG stats. Bryant isn’t a team that will wow you from deep and won the games they were supposed to while getting smoked in Quad 1-2 (0-4) games including by 15 to St Bonaventure, -22 to St John’s and a whopping -44 to Grand Canyon. I expect the forwards to get more touches than usual as MSU will look to flex their post size into early foul trouble and bring the little used size by Bryant, to the floor. Defensively, they will need to focus on the two-guard attack and keep them out of the paint. Frankie Fidler will be called again to help Jaden Akins and Tre Holloman in defending the pick-and-roll and/or pick-and-pop that they’ve had issues with but given the smaller size, this will not be nearly as tough as 1-2 guard combo of Big Ten rivals. MSU should enjoy a fairly comfortable first round win with a sizable margin of victory.

GAME TIME: 10:00pm EST (subject to later based on earlier games) on TBS