Spartans Must Dispatch Wooden Award Finalist and Coach Pearl’s Tigers

Coach Izzo enters his Elite 8 matchup against Auburn 10-0 all time vs the SEC in the NCAA Tournament and 8-2 all time in Elite 8 games. Bruce Pearl is trying to take his second program, to a Final 4 as he did previously at Tennessee. This will be David vs. Goliath type preview as the overall #1 seed takes on arguably, the best non-1 seed team who was a semifinal loss away from potentially being a double championship team. Auburn boasts one of the best players in Division I in Johni Broome and one of the best teams remaining perhaps with Florida being a serious contender in that aspect. Who will prevail and are there any major areas of advantage for either team? Let’s take a look on the quick 48-hour turnaround ahead of Sunday’s last regional championship game.

Tigers Starting 5 vs. MSU’s Depth

Auburn’s starting 5 has the advantage, especially at the forward position. A whopping majority of their production originates from their starting 5 who average double figures, accounting for 65.1 of the team’s 83.8 ppg average (77.7%). On the flip side, MSU utilizes its bench to score roughly 40% of their points and present a balanced rotation with only 1-2 in double figures at any given point of the season. The Tigers have a trio of guards that I see similarities to in MSU, but they also tend to be a bit unpredictable, as noted by Chad Baker-Mazara’s aggressive behavior which has results in several technical fouls including a disqualification, flagrant foul 2 in the SEC tournament. He has the ability to score with the best of the guards but is inconsistent. If MSU can get in his head defensively, it seems likely he would lose his cool and put himself in foul trouble or at least a non-threat. Broome is going to be a problem, but MSU has enough size and depth to throw different looks and most likely be given the “dig-down” help they have shown previously to Wisconsin’s Tonje, involving the help side guard.

MSU’s Defense vs. Auburn’s Offense

Auburn’s offense has been off the last 3 weeks where they have been losing the bulk of their games this year. Even against Michigan, they struggled until the final 10 minutes when Michigan ran out of gas and the talent gap showed. They’ve gone from a certainty to make the title game and favorite, to considered among the best as they took loses in the conference and the tournament before reaching the Elite 8. The Tigers have had a good draw but their struggles against Michigan should be a concern for Tiger fans as MSU dismantled the Wolverines to the tune of 30+ points in their two matchups.

The Spartan’s defense has been their bread-and-butter, creating fast break chances, points in the paint and why their free throw rate and conversion percentage are among the best in Division I. Even when down in the recent weeks trend of the first half, they actually lean on their defense MORE which has consistently allowed them to claw back into games and dominate the second half. They will have to contend with their trio of guards who present similar abilities to MSU’s Jase, Jaden and Tre Holloman. I do believe they will go to Broome early to see how MSU has prepped to defend him since historically, Izzo doesn’t double the post or at least, extremely seldomly. Izzo used a dig-down method of showing a brief double team or trap when the post player receives the ball on or around the block area, the near-side helping guard will flash down in an effort to force a pass, pick up the dribble and potentially force a turnover. It’s not committing a full double team but still allows MSU the defensive cohesion with their athletes to be in great help side rotation on subsequent passes out of the flash trap. I would expect to see some 1-on-1 too as MSU boasts the depth to experiment a bit as to any potential good matchups they can find, but ultimately it will be a combination.

Overall, this game is going to be extremely close. MSU has had 1 loss in their last 11 games and Auburn has been faltering while having to gut games out for more recent wins. Its survive and advance mode which nobody knows better than Coach Izzo. Will Jase Richardson, Coen Carr and Jaden Akins continue to excel to new heights? Or will the star power of Broome and company be too much for MSU’s depth. Tune in Sunday at 5:05pm EST on CBS.