Week 3 Wrap-Up:

After a two-week absence, I’m back! Normally, this is where I recap last week’s picks, but since those are two weeks old—and let’s be honest, it was a bad week—I say we just skip the recap and dive straight into this week’s picks.

Week 6 Picks:

Syracuse vs. (25) UNLV – UNLV -6.5

UNLV is on a roll this season. Despite off-the-field NIL drama, they’ve powered through their schedule, taking down big programs like Fresno State last week, Kansas the week before, and dominant wins over UTU and Houston. They’re sitting at the top of the MW table, and Allegiant Stadium will be packed as the Rebels celebrate their first-ever week in the top 25 rankings.

However, they face a big hurdle with the loss of star QB Matthew Sluka due to NIL disputes. Senior backup QB Hajj-Malik Williams will now lead this high-powered offense. Fortunately, Williams has the advantage of playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. The key matchup in this game will be UNLV’s O-line against Syracuse’s strong defensive front, which could make this one a nail-biter.

Syracuse’s QB Kyle McCord (formerly of Ohio State) has been impressive, but I’m not sure their offense can keep up with UNLV’s pace. Plus, I doubt their D-line is conditioned enough to handle UNLV’s up-tempo offense for four quarters. I like UNLV to win by a TD or more, covering the 6.5.

(9) Missouri vs. (25) Texas A&M – Texas A&M -2.5

This one was tough for me. Both teams have had their struggles, but I think A&M bounced back well after their week 1 loss to Notre Dame. Meanwhile, Mizzou has underperformed, barely scraping by against a bad Vanderbilt team last week.

Mizzou’s preseason ranking (#6) feels inflated, and despite sitting in the top 10, they haven’t looked like a top team. This should be an entertaining SEC matchup, especially with no other major SEC games this weekend. It’ll be hot in Texas, which could lead to a sloppy game.

Both teams have talent on both sides of the ball, but I give the edge to A&M’s offense, especially with freshman QB Marcel Reed playing well lately. Mizzou’s defense may have stars, but they’ve allowed more points than expected. I like the home team here, and the Texas heat will work in A&M’s favor. I see their defense forcing turnovers and taking advantage of a gassed Mizzou team. A&M covers the 2.5.

SMU vs. (22) Louisville – Louisville -7

SMU enters its first major ACC matchup on a high after pummeling Florida State 42-16 last week and putting up 66 points against TCU the week before. Their offense is firing on all cylinders. But this is Louisville we’re talking about.

The Cardinals have been a force in the ACC under Head Coach Jeff Brohm. With a big win over a talented Georgia Tech team and a close loss to Notre Dame last week, they’ve proven they’re legit. WR Ja’Corey Brooks leads the ACC in receiving yards, and QB Tyler Shough has only turned the ball over once all season. SMU has a potent offense, so I see this game turning into a high-scoring affair.

Louisville should pull this one out late, likely up by a TD in the final minutes with a big defensive stop. I like them to cover the 7, and if you’re looking for a bonus, I’d suggest taking the over on the 56.5 total points.

Michigan vs. Washington – Michigan +2.5

I’m shocked by this line. Michigan is coming off a massive win against USC, and while they struggled a bit against Minnesota, that’s classic “Big Game Hangover.” We’ve seen it time and again. Michigan’s defense is legit, and they proved it against USC.

Washington, on the other hand, has been inconsistent. They lost to Washington State in the Apple Cup and squeaked by Rutgers last week in a close game. On the surface, those may look like bad losses, but I actually think both WSU and Rutgers are solid teams this year. WSU has just one loss to a ranked Boise State team, and Rutgers remains undefeated.

This new Big 10 rivalry will be fun for years to come, but I think Michigan takes this one by two scores. With Vegas giving me 2.5 points, I’m taking Michigan all day. Washington’s offense won’t be able to move the ball much against that Michigan defense.

(8) Miami vs. Cal – Cal +10.5

Yes, I know what you’re thinking—this is a total homer pick. But hear me out! Cal had a tough loss to FSU two weeks ago, but they’ve had plenty of time to regroup. With College Gameday coming to town for the first time ever, Memorial Stadium will be rocking. Miami doesn’t know what they’re walking into.

Cam Ward is a fantastic QB and a likely Heisman contender, but Miami hasn’t faced anyone good this season. They barely escaped Virginia Tech last week. Yes, Friday night games are always weird, but VT isn’t an ACC powerhouse.

Ward will be up against the toughest defense he’s faced all season. Cal’s four hard-hitting linebackers—Carlton, Buchanan, Uluve, and Reese—are all healthy and ready to play. Plus, Cal’s QB Fernando Mendoza has had two weeks to rest and heal, which should make this a gun-slinger matchup, especially with RB Jaydn Ott in the mix.

If I’m getting 10.5 points with Cal at home, I’m taking it all day.

The Late Night Chase:

Texas Tech vs. Arizona – Arizona -6.5

Folks, this is the definition of a late-night chase. With an 8 pm PST kickoff, it’s about as late as you can get. The Miami vs. Cal game is also a late one at 7:30 pm, but this 8 pm start gives you a bit more time to decide if you want to chase.

Arizona is coming off a HUGE win over Utah on the road, and Texas Tech has had a nice season so far, with only one loss to Washington State. But I like Arizona at home to win by a TD.

Tech’s RB Tahj Brooks will get his yards, but Arizona’s offense is just too talented. Their WR corps is unstoppable, and I feel confident they’ll cover the 6.5.

I’m back, baby! Let’s make some money!