The Duke Blue Devils are preparing for the 2025 NCAA Tournament, entering the Big Dance as the #1 seed in the East Region. As Duke fans overanalyze their brackets, the question looms: is this the year Duke can win its sixth national championship and the first in 10 years?

As you break down Duke’s potential path to the Final Four and hopefully cutting down the nets in San Antonio, the greatest concern was the health of forward Cooper Flagg, who sprained his ankle in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday. Center Maliq Brown re-dislocated his shoulder in the same game just minutes before Cooper Flagg went down, and while he was seen in the ACC Tournament Final without a sling, it is presumed that Brown return to play may not be for at least a couple of weeks.

In the case of Cooper Flagg, he was held out of the rest of the ACC Tournament, where the Blue Devils still managed to defeat Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Louisville on their way to the title. However, head coach Jon Scheyer said on Sunday night that he expects Cooper Flagg to play on Friday when the Blue Devils open up NCAA Tournament play in Raleigh against either American or Mount St. Mary’s.

So, how difficult could Duke’s path to the national title be? The first major story line could come in the second round, as a potential matchup with either Mississippi State or Baylor would await them. Baylor includes Jeremy Roach, who transferred there after being the floor general for Duke for four years. It would create the awkward moments Duke fans probably wished wouldn’t happen to see Roach line up opposite his former team. But, while both Baylor and Mississippi State have some talent, Duke on paper should be able to outduel them.

In the Sweet 16, Duke could see 4 seed Arizona or 5 seed Oregon. Duke played Arizona on the road in Tucson back in November, beating the Wildcats by double digits. However, it’s always difficult to beat a team twice, and while Arizona is reeling, guard Caleb Love has sadly taken Duke out of a tournament before when he played for UNC in 2022. Both teams are still solid and would pose a test for Duke, and Duke would counter with the fact that two players in their rotation – Isaiah Evans and Patrick Ngongba – didn’t play a second against Arizona back in November. They could be the difference, coupled with Duke’s starting lineup that took shape after the two teams played each other.

The Elite 8 could be a major Final Four type of test, and Duke would have their hands full if that opponent is 2 seed Alabama. Mark Sears is one of the best players in the country and Alabama has been a strong team the past few seasons. Duke would also get a test from 3 seed Wisconsin or even upstart 6 seed BYU. 7-seed St. Mary’s could be the fly in the ointment on the bottom half of the bracket.

As the 2nd overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, should Duke advance to the Final Four, they would face the winner of the Midwest Region, which contains 1 seed Houston, 2 seed Tennessee, 3 seed Kentucky – who beat Duke in the Champions Classic in November – and 4 seed Purdue. Houston is arguably the best defensive team in the country, and just like in the Sweet 16 last year, a Duke-Houston matchup would be one for the ages. Duke would need to play its A game in the semifinal to get to the national title game. Finally, should Duke make it to the final game, teams like Auburn or Florida could await them. Michigan State and St. John’s are also popular picks to make it that far.

Duke’s road to a national championship will be tough, but it’s fair. There’s no team out there that poses a scary matchup for a Duke squad at full strength and full health. They have the best player in the country and arguably the best starting five as well. They are the odds-on pick to win the national championship, and they should be. They’re the best team in the country with the best record. And Duke is #1 in both the AP and Coaches Polls, and they’re #1 in almost all of the predictive computer metrics like Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, Evan Miya, and the NET.

Teams will look to get physical with the Blue Devils to throw them off on offense and try to get in the paint for easier buckets when Duke is trying to defend. Still, this is the moment where champions are made, and despite the down year for the ACC, Duke still saw some tests. They loaded up on their non-conference schedule, took some punches, and learned how to fight back. They hope that fight will help them become the last team standing in San Antonio on April 7th with the national championship trophy in their hands. And, they have an excellent chance to make that happen.