Big Ten Hoops- Holiday Look Around

It’s officially the time where college students stress the among the most- Finals Week. As we approach Christmas, most teams will be taking breaks or long gaps between games to knock out their academic responsibilities. This gives us time to dive around the Big Ten Men’s BB standings and gauge progress around the 10-game mark.

General Overview

As always, there are two sides to a coin. Side A has no undefeated teams; but Side B, no team has a losing record (as written on 12/11). With that information alone, it could lead to brutal remaining conference play for those seeking 1-16 seeds overall (#1-#3 seed lines). Let’s take a look around the Big Ten landscape.

The UCLA Bruins (#24; 8-1) check-in with the longest winning streak at 7 games while Indiana (8-2, 1-0) has bounced back with 4 straight and Michigan State (#21, 8-2) at 3 consecutive wins. Only UCLA, Michigan (#14, 8-2) and MSU hold 2-0 conferences records. Aside from the bulk being 1-1, among those seeking their first conference win are: Nebraska (6-2, 0-1), Wisconsin (#20, 8-3, 0-2), Washington (7-3. 0-2) and Minnesota (6-5, 0-2).

Michigan State men’s basketball is 2-0 in Big Ten play and ranked in the AP and Coaches poll as it enjoys a bye week right now.@austenflores1 looks at four stats that show why the Spartans are 8-2 overall right now with a lot of momentum behind them. https://t.co/kYrMSzioRx

— Spartans Illustrated (@SpartansRivals) December 11, 2024

Fast Starts

In its entirety, the Big Ten began with a bang. The currently ranked teams in ORE, MSU, PUR, UofM and UCLA all currently have NC SOS (non-conference strength-of-schedule) that are among the top 60. Wisconsin is just behind ranking 62nd, while OSU (85th) and Rutgers (80th) round out for Top 100. To date (12/11), the NET conference checks in as the 3rd best non-conference schedule (113-28, 80.14%) behind number one SEC (129-19, 87.16%) and second being The Big 12 (104-36, 74.29%) with Illinois leading the overall NET at 11th overall.

The SEC and Big Ten have been seizing at-large bids from the other big leagues in the non-con.

Change in predicted bids since preseason:
SEC: 10.2 ➡️ 11.2
B1G: 9.7 ➡️ 10.9
Big 12: 8.5 ➡️ 7.6
ACC: 5.7 ➡️ 4.3
BE: 4.7 ➡️ 3.9

Here’s how the bids have gone up or down over time 👇 pic.twitter.com/yW8e63g4Ej

— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) December 11, 2024

Despite that, according to ESPN, Illinois currently has the highest remaining SOS ranking (5th), Purdue (6th) and UCLA (14th), giving the 7-2 Fighting Illini 38.4% odds on favorite to win the regular season while dealing with the most challenging BPI. Mostly, due to their upcoming game against newly top ranked Tennessee on 12/14, Missouri on 12/22 and Duke late in February. UCLA has a pair of juicy non-conference games left in UNC on 12/21 and (#8) Gonzaga on 12/28, plus their upcoming game vs Arizona on 12/14. Michigan has a date with (#13) Oklahoma on 12/18. Purdue, already having squared off with wins over ranked Alabama and Ole Miss, also suffered a defeat at Marquette. They have two more non-conference Quad 1 opportunities playing (#17) Texas A&M on 12/14 and (#2) Auburn on 12/21.

Remaining Conference Outlook

Based on what we’ve seen against what lies ahead, it is still early to say with confidence that the current top 4-5 teams will hold to be the contenders come February. The NIL era has truly changed college athletics, and it is evolving faster than we most likely expected. The days of acquiring solid class signings, developing and slowly incorporating those recruits into impactful players towards banners and championships are largely gone; players are stepping into the portal at all hours of the season, donors are making their contributions felt with many schools landing players they may not have had an angle at beforehand. Traditional routes of 4 and 5-star recruits largely going to the “blue blood” programs has transformed to various schools willing to pay for said talent among Group of 5 and away from the Power 4 conferences.

However, with the inclusion of Washington, UCLA, USC and Oregon in the Big Ten (now 18 total programs), the conference seems to be healthy of competition and raise their collective level towards winning championships. We’ve already seen that in football with four total teams representing out of newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format. With talks as recent as this week to expanding the NCAA March Madness Tournament towards 72 or 76 total teams, there creates additional chances for more teams to earn a bid.

Projections lean towards Illinois, Maryland, UCLA, Oregon, OSU, MSU, PSU, UofM, Purdue, Wisconsin and Iowa all in the T50 NET ratings with the Badgers and Hawkeyes 39th/50th respectively needing some more work to secure a possible at-large bid. Additional links will be provided for greater detail below.

In short, we have a lot of teams grouped together with some big-time or get-right matchups through the end of 2024. As of 12/11, the early projection puts all but USC, Rutgers, Minnesota and Washington in the field of 68. Later, we will revisit the league approximately 10 Big Ten games in or half the 20-game conference schedule and look at breakout players, impact underclassman and any surprise headlines and standing shifts. Buckle up for a wild conference season!

RANKINGS (#AP T25/#Coaches Poll)

Purdue (11/11), Oregon (12/12), Michigan (14/14), Wisconsin (20/22), MSU (21/19), UCLA (24/21)

BPI RANKS (Top 50)

Illinois (13th), Purdue (18th), Maryland (20th), MSU (21st), UCLA (26th), OSU (28th), Oregon (31st), UofM (32nd), WIS (35th), PSU (43rd), NW(48th) and Indiana (50th)

ESPN BPI Ranks

KenPom NetRtg (Top 50)

UCLA (15th), Illinois (16th), Purdue (17th), Maryland (19th), MSU (22nd), UofM (24th), OSU (28th), PSU (33rd), WISC (35th) and Iowa (45th)

KenPom Rankings

Bart Torvikk (Top 50)

Illinois (10th), UCLA (13th), Maryland (15th), Purdue (17th), MSU (21st), UofM (24th), Oregon (27th), OSU (33rd), Indiana (37th), WISC (38th), PSU (40th), Iowa (44th) and Northwestern (50th)

Bart Torvik Rankings