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Duke will need to dig deep to win the NCAA Women’s Tournament

The Duke Blue Devils are a 2 seed in Birmingham 2 Region of the NCAA Women’s Tournament, and they open their quest for a national championship on Friday. Duke was a bit of a surprise to get a 2 seed after a terrific regular season that ended with them winning the ACC Tournament for the first time since 2013.

Entering the tournament, Duke has prepared itself all season by having a touch schedule and doing well against that schedule. The Blue Devils are 26-7, with 8 wins over ranked opponents, 5 wins over top 10 teams, and playing 15 teams that are in the Field of 68. And, the polls and computers think they’re one of the strongest teams in the country. According to WarrenNolan.com, Duke has the fifth best NET overall strength of schedule (eight best NET non-conference schedule). In the RPI, the strength of schedule is rated even higher: #2 in both non-conference and overall strength of schedule. They’re ranked #7 in the polls, #7 in the NET, #7 in the ELO rating, and #6 in the RPI, which certainly helped their case in the committee room to get one of the 2 seeds.

Source: WarrenNolan.com

Duke’s first round game will be against 15 seed Lehigh. Sorry for the jump scare folks…this is not 2012 and this is not the men’s bracket. Still, fans no doubt made the immediate link to the Duke Men losing to Lehigh as a 2 seed in the first round of the 2012 NCAA Men’s Tournament. The difference this time around is that the Duke Women will be playing in the friendly confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium, where they are 13-1 this season. Should they win their opening game, they would face the winner of 7 seed Vanderbilt and 10 seed Oregon.

Should the Blue Devils make it to the Sweet 16 and advance to Birmingham, a potential rivalry matchup could be waiting. North Carolina is the 3 seed in that region, which would be an entertaining rubber match between the two teams. In the Elite 8, while 4 seed Maryland – a team that beat Duke in College Park back in November – is on the other side, one of the odds-on favorites in the whole tournament will likely be standing between the Blue Devils and a trip to Tampa for the Final Four. South Carolina, the 1 seed in the bracket and whom many thought would be the #1 overall seed in the tournament, are the defending national champions and one of the best programs of the past decade. Duke lost to South Carolina on the road back in December, but they’ve learned from that test and they feel confident about how they can do should they get another chance. However, it would still be one of the big upsets if Duke got past South Carolina, reminiscent of Duke beating Tennessee to get to the Final Four in 1999.

Should Duke move onto the Final Four, they would face the winner of the Birmingham 3 Region, which could be a team like Texas, TCU, Notre Dame, Tennessee, or even Louisville. Should Duke make it this far, they are playing a team that has been at or near the top of the rankings all season long. And in the national championship, you could see a team like Lauren Betts and #1 overall seed UCLA, JuJu Watkins and USC, or Paige Bueckers and UConn. It’s realistically a very tall order for Duke to cut down the nets in Tampa.

Still, it’s a possibility that Duke can continue the miracle run that took them to the ACC Tournament title while avenging all of their ACC losses. Head coach Kara Lawson has her team believing and after years of battling numerous injuries and inopportune dry shooting spells, they’re at full strength and they’re ready to take on the rest of the tournament field.

Will Duke win the national championship? Realistically, it’s still a bit of a long shot. But can they win it? They certainly can. They will have to bring their A+ game every single night and hope that in the end, it’s enough to put them over the top.

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