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2024 Confidence Will Make Michael Toglia a Breakout Star in 2025

When he was drafted in the first round by the Colorado Rockies in 2019, Michael Toglia carried the mantle of the next big thing at first base for the franchise. After 17 glorious years from Hall of Famer Todd Helton, first base had become a revolving door since Helton’s retirement in 2013. The team tried rebounding veterans on their last legs like Justin Morneau, young players looking to make it big like Ben Paulsen, and converting a multitude of players to try and play the position like Wilin Rosario, Gerardo Parra, Ian Desmond, and Daniel Murphy. The team also got some good years out of notable sluggers Mark Reynolds and C.J. Cron, but they were all just temporary bandages at the position.

Over the last few years, the Rockies continued to figure out who would replace Cron once his time in Colorado was down. Toglia was the obvious candidate, but in his brief stints with the team starting in 2022, he struggled immensely, and it didn’t seem clear that he would be able to be the offensive piece they needed. They tried using Elehuris Montero, the prized prospect in the Nolan Arenado trade, but his poor defense and lackluster offensive production left him as an unviable option. The team could try to stuff the $182 million of Kris Bryant at first base, which was the plan in 2024, but his inability to stay healthy limited him to just 32 games overall.

First base had quickly become somewhat of a black hole, or at least a revolving door, as they toyed with the idea that you could throw anyone at first base defensively as long as their bat would pick up the slack. It appeared the search would continue in 2024 until Toglia took the reins of the position.

After a scorching Spring Training, Toglia earned a big league roster spot on Opening Day. However, he struggled offensively out of the gate. In his first 15 games, he slashed .106/.143/.362 with 20 strikeouts, one walk in 49 plate appearances, and a 44.4% ground ball rate. He had just five hits, four of which were home runs, for a total of eight RBI. He rotated around between first base and right field, but the promising signs of Spring Training didn’t follow Toglia into the season, and he was sent down to Triple-A Albuquerque on April 24.

Toglia had always done well in the minors, and his stint in Albuquerque was no different as he made 135 plate appearances, resulting in a slash line of .277/.363/.571 with 33 hits, including four doubles, two triples, and nine home runs. Additionally, he had 15 walks against 35 strikeouts and had a .934 OPS. He truly had nothing left to prove in the minors, but mostly just needed an extended chance to prove himself at the big league level.

That opportunity came in June when Bryant was sent to the injured list on June 6, allowing Toglia to be promoted. Through his first 11 games back, it was clear Toglia was a different hitter, or at least a more consistent one. He slashed .290/.349/.447 with 11 hits, including three extra-base hits, 13 strikeouts, and four walks while playing high-quality defense. With Bryant on the IL and Montero struggling at the plate, Toglia made the start at first base on June 18 and never looked back. His final 90 games of the season came exclusively at first base, and should he play every day at first, he will break Andres Galarraga’s streak of consecutive starts at first base.  Since his return in June last season, Toglia slashed .233./331/.469 with 21 home runs, helping him set a franchise record for home runs by a switch-hitter with 25.

Out of the dust of the 100-plus loss season for the Rockies, the team seemed to find another cornerstone to build around with Toglia. His immense power is something the team has craved, and his HR/AB ratio was one of the lowest in baseball. He truly became a boom-or-bust type of player.

Strikeouts are always going to be an area of concern for Toglia. His large frame screams slugger, and with that comes the territory of punchouts. Last season, he held a 32.1% strikeout rate, something the Rockies hope he can continue to improve upon while helping raise his batting average. What will go a long way in helping him will be the continued excellence of his vision at the plate. He boasted a walk rate of 11.4% last season while maintaining consistency on both sides of the plate. He displayed an ability to evolve and continue to develop, a key trait for a player that is just 26 years old with plenty of years ahead of him.

So far, Toglia is looking the part of a player that can break out even further in 2025. Through his first 11 at-bats over four games entering Thursday’s contest against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Toglia is batting .455/.500/1.000 with two home runs, five RBI, two strikeouts, and a walk. He has been putting the ball in play, showing a keen eye at the plate, and making loud contact on pitches. In every sense of the word, he looks like the comfortable veteran that the team has longed for at first base.

Comfort and confidence may be the key to why he’s been able to turn things around. Once it was certain that Toglia’s name would be in the lineup at first base every day last season, he was able to become confident and comfortable on the field. No longer was he having to stress about whether or not he was going to play, but rather, he could use the knowledge that he was going to be out there every day as a tool to boost his performance.

Uncertainty can be a huge detriment to a baseball player, but Toglia managed to cast out most of the doubt lobbied on him by the Rockies’ top brass. Entering the 2025 season, Toglia expects to play every single day. Even though the team brought in a variety of options that can play first base and spell Toglia as needed, manager Bud Black may find it difficult keeping Toglia off the field if he can improve upon his performance last season.

The Rockies have plenty of exciting young talent, but perhaps one of the sneakier sleeper picks to be a catalyst this season is none other than their slugger at first base.

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