In the 2024 NFL season, the Jacksonville Jaguars lost 10 games within a single score. Five of those games were outings where Trevor Lawrence didn’t finish the game (The only one Lawrence started was when he was knocked out by a dirty hit against the Texans on December 1st). With no disrespect to Mac Jones who started seven of the last eight games of the season, it’s not a bold assumption that were Trevor healthy, at least three of those games would have been wins.  It is with that premise that we can postulate that Lawrence missing as much time as he did last year could be a net positive for the Duval Devout and the future of their Jacksonville Jaguars.

Front Office Makeover

Let’s say the Jacksonville Jaguars won the games below battling the New York Jets, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the AFC South division rival Indianapolis Colts. It’s safe to assume that Lawrence can make a one-score difference to win against in those final contests to give Jacksonville a five-game winning streak to close the year on a high note. While the Houston Texans would still win the AFC South and make the playoffs, would that be enough for owner Shad Khan to put all of the blame on Doug Pederson and the coaching staff and start the coaching search that led to Trent Baalke’s departure??

After all, heading into that 2024 campaign Khan said that this was the “greatest Jaguar roster ever assembled” in his time there. And Baalke as the general manager would be the one who would get the credit for the assembly. But in the above scenario, the Jags would have swept both the Colts and the Tennessee Titans for second place in the AFC South. This scenario would have the Duval Devout wondering if they had split with the Texans and won any of the one-score differences where they fell short, would they make the playoffs (which they could over the Texans with nine wins thanks to a 5-1 divisional record in tiebreakers)? If it was all that “close” in the standings while finishing the season with a five-game win streak, would Pederson have been fired? After all, Pederson can only set his team up for success, right? Maybe it’s all just one more step away from torture and glory in Duval in Khan’s mind at that point?

If that’s what the front office was thinking, there is a universe where Baalke, Pederson, and the coaching staff are still employed and trying to find the next step to growth.

The 5th Overall Pick

When Lawrence hit the injured reserve on December 2nd, a particular faction of fan within the Duval Devout was born — the “Travis hunter”. A Travis hunter is a Jaguar fan who was good with the Jaguars continuing to tank so they could acquire the Heisman Trophy Winner out of Colorado with as high a draft pick as possible. Now, the Titans came up late on their schedule with both games played in December to complicate that quest, but if the Jags had finished out with a five-game winning streak that would have crushed the hope of all Travis hunters just in time for Christmas.

But more importantly, Jacksonville wouldn’t even be picking in the Top 10 for the 2025 NFL Draft.  Regardless of whether they take Travis Hunter, Mason Graham, or trade the 5th overall pick — the chances of them getting as much value out of this coming draft would be lower.

The Focus on the Offensive Line

What’s fascinating about the current focus on revamping the offensive line is that in the play that finished Lawrence’s season, he wasn’t in the pocket. However, it’s going to get more attention whenever a franchise quarterback ends up being put on injured reserve. It was enough for the Jags to acquire three offensive linemen in Patrick Mekari (Baltimore Ravens), Chuma Edoga (Dallas Cowboys), and Robert Hainsey (Tampa Bay Buccaneers).

If Lawrence stays healthy, would Baalke and Pederson’s leadership have done as much as head coach Liam Coen, general manager James Gladstone, and executive vice president Tony Boselli? Heading into 2024, Mitch Morse was brought in supplemented by 4th-round pick Javon Foster and that was supposed to fix everything on an offensive line that was supposed to have improved their toughness as a unit with those moves. That’s not evidence that the focus would have been as great. There would have been a push to upgrade the defense and skill positions on offense.

Granted, Morse’s retirement and the conclusion of Brandon Scherff’s expired contract demand more attention, but would they still be focused on beefing up the offensive line as the current front office that has acquired three before even entering the month of April?

Obviously, it’s too soon for the Duval Devout to start taking victory laps, but for those fans who have liked what they’ve seen in the Jaguars pivoting so far, keep in mind these moves and others in the future could all be traced to linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair going low late on Lawrence on December 1st, 2024 for even being possible.